Importance of oceanic decadal trends and westerly wind bursts for forecasting El Niño
Identifieur interne : 000529 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000528; suivant : 000530Importance of oceanic decadal trends and westerly wind bursts for forecasting El Niño
Auteurs : Claire M. Perigaud [États-Unis] ; Christophe Cassou [France]Source :
- Geophysical Research Letters [ 0094-8276 ] ; 2000-02-01.
Abstract
In the western Pacific, Westerly Wind Bursts (WWB) usually show up in the boreal fall‐winter season, depending on the activity of the Madden and Jullian oscillation. It is demonstrated with a coupled ocean‐atmosphere model that WWB have an impact on the coupled system in El Niño forecasting that depends on the ocean preconditioning. Sea level data reveal decadal changes of the Ocean Heat Content of the entire tropical Pacific (the OHC), with a minimum in the mid‐1980s relative to highs before 1982 and after 1996. Adding the WWB in the forecast system does not degrade the successful predictions when the OHC is low whereas WWB are necessary in winter 1981–82 and 1996–97 to successfully predict the forthcoming warm events. Thus, when the OHC is high in addition to the other traditional conditions being favorable for a warm growth, WWB contribute to having a strong El Niño event the following year.
Url:
DOI: 10.1029/1999GL010781
Affiliations:
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
Le document en format XML
<record><TEI wicri:istexFullTextTei="biblStruct"><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Importance of oceanic decadal trends and westerly wind bursts for forecasting El Niño</title><author><name sortKey="Perigaud, Claire M" sort="Perigaud, Claire M" uniqKey="Perigaud C" first="Claire M." last="Perigaud">Claire M. Perigaud</name></author><author><name sortKey="Cassou, Christophe" sort="Cassou, Christophe" uniqKey="Cassou C" first="Christophe" last="Cassou">Christophe Cassou</name></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">ISTEX</idno><idno type="RBID">ISTEX:CFFACB6A77000F5AF8F189B83039CAE0AAB3040F</idno><date when="2000" year="2000">2000</date><idno type="doi">10.1029/1999GL010781</idno><idno type="url">https://api.istex.fr/document/CFFACB6A77000F5AF8F189B83039CAE0AAB3040F/fulltext/pdf</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Corpus">000086</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">000086</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Exploration">000529</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Main" wicri:step="Exploration">000529</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title level="a" type="main" xml:lang="en">Importance of oceanic decadal trends and westerly wind bursts for forecasting El Niño</title><author><name sortKey="Perigaud, Claire M" sort="Perigaud, Claire M" uniqKey="Perigaud C" first="Claire M." last="Perigaud">Claire M. Perigaud</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><country>États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Californie</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Jet Propulsion Laboratory, CALTECH, Pasadena</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Cassou, Christophe" sort="Cassou, Christophe" uniqKey="Cassou C" first="Christophe" last="Cassou">Christophe Cassou</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>CERFACS, Toulouse</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region">Occitanie (région administrative)</region><region type="old region">Midi-Pyrénées</region><settlement type="city">Toulouse</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author></analytic><monogr></monogr><series><title level="j">Geophysical Research Letters</title><title level="j" type="abbrev">Geophys. Res. Lett.</title><idno type="ISSN">0094-8276</idno><idno type="eISSN">1944-8007</idno><imprint><publisher>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisher><date type="published" when="2000-02-01">2000-02-01</date><biblScope unit="volume">27</biblScope><biblScope unit="issue">3</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" from="389">389</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" to="392">392</biblScope></imprint><idno type="ISSN">0094-8276</idno></series><idno type="istex">CFFACB6A77000F5AF8F189B83039CAE0AAB3040F</idno><idno type="DOI">10.1029/1999GL010781</idno><idno type="ArticleID">1999GL010781</idno></biblStruct></sourceDesc><seriesStmt><idno type="ISSN">0094-8276</idno></seriesStmt></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass><langUsage><language ident="en">en</language></langUsage></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract">In the western Pacific, Westerly Wind Bursts (WWB) usually show up in the boreal fall‐winter season, depending on the activity of the Madden and Jullian oscillation. It is demonstrated with a coupled ocean‐atmosphere model that WWB have an impact on the coupled system in El Niño forecasting that depends on the ocean preconditioning. Sea level data reveal decadal changes of the Ocean Heat Content of the entire tropical Pacific (the OHC), with a minimum in the mid‐1980s relative to highs before 1982 and after 1996. Adding the WWB in the forecast system does not degrade the successful predictions when the OHC is low whereas WWB are necessary in winter 1981–82 and 1996–97 to successfully predict the forthcoming warm events. Thus, when the OHC is high in addition to the other traditional conditions being favorable for a warm growth, WWB contribute to having a strong El Niño event the following year.</div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>France</li><li>États-Unis</li></country><region><li>Californie</li><li>Midi-Pyrénées</li><li>Occitanie (région administrative)</li></region><settlement><li>Toulouse</li></settlement></list><tree><country name="États-Unis"><region name="Californie"><name sortKey="Perigaud, Claire M" sort="Perigaud, Claire M" uniqKey="Perigaud C" first="Claire M." last="Perigaud">Claire M. Perigaud</name></region></country><country name="France"><region name="Occitanie (région administrative)"><name sortKey="Cassou, Christophe" sort="Cassou, Christophe" uniqKey="Cassou C" first="Christophe" last="Cassou">Christophe Cassou</name></region></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Wicri/Amerique/explor/CaltechV1/Data/Main/Exploration
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 000529 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/biblio.hfd -nk 000529 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien
|wiki= Wicri/Amerique
|area= CaltechV1
|flux= Main
|étape= Exploration
|type= RBID
|clé= ISTEX:CFFACB6A77000F5AF8F189B83039CAE0AAB3040F
|texte= Importance of oceanic decadal trends and westerly wind bursts for forecasting El Niño
}}
| This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.32. |  |